Science

New forecast: We are 13 billion years 2100

It has long been said that the Earth's population will soon level out and Stabilisers.

But Lately, the forecasts have indicated that the increase will continue for a long time. The worst case, we will be over 13 billion years 2100.

Big Population

It is clear from the reports published in recent years by the UN population Department (UN Population Division).

The report from 2011 stated that the Earth's population would not stabilize around 9 billion that has long been adopted. Instead, it was settled that the increase would continue and reach 10.1 billion in 2100.

That forecast stood at 2013 when the figure was raised to 10.9 billion – and recently it was further increased to 11.2 billion.

However, The latter figure is only a mean value. If it Wants to be wrong, we can end up at a much higher level, 13.3 billion. That would mean doubling, or almost, compared to today.

It is clear that in the past it has underestimated the rate of increase in some parts of the world.

Pakistan is one of the countries where the population is likely to double by the year 2100. The Population is believed to grow from today 190 million to 365 million at the turn of the century. The picture shows people in a market in Lahore. Archive image. Photo: K.M. Chaudary/AP/TT

This is particularly true of Africa. Today there are 1.2 billion people on the continent. In 2030, the figure is believed to have risen to 1.7 billion, and in 2050 to 2.5 billion, to reach 4.4 billion at the turn of the century. This means a supplement of 3.2 billion people in the space of 83 years.

Even in most countries in the Middle East, a sharp increase is expected, as in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

As is apparent in the poorest countries in the world, the significant increase will take place. The Question is what this gets for the effects.

"Africa already has significant problems today. I do not see how it will go if the population increases to four billion, says Anders Wijkman, author, debater and former MEP with environmental issues as a specialty and also Charles as science journalist.

He has long worked to raise the population issue in the debate but is dissatisfied with the response.

"It's an issue that has ended up in the backwater, partly because of resistance from some Muslim countries and the Catholic Church," he says.

He believes that the strong future growth of the population in Africa and the Middle East will have a significant impact on Europe, with massive flows of refugees across the Mediterranean.

Women and children collect grain outside a village in Malawi in southern Africa. Malawi is already overpopulated, but the population is still believed to grow from 17 to 87 million people up to 2100 – a breathtaking increase. Archive image. Photo: Tsvangirayi Mukwazhi/AP/TT

Many also fear what the increase will entail for nature and biodiversity in Africa. What happens, for example, with the Serengeti and other famous national parks when the population of Tanzania increases from today 55 million to 300 million in 2100?

"It's very worrying," says Frank Götmark, professor of Organic Zoology at the University of Gothenburg.

Several analysts have pointed out that strong population growth, combined with environmental factors, can give rise to violence, civil war, and ethnic cleansing.

One example is Rwanda in 1990, where the lack of agricultural land and a massive overpopulation contributed to the genocide of hundreds of thousands of Tutsis. Another example is today's Syria where antagonisms in society went into civil war since the country suffered a very severe drought between 2006 and 2011.

Between 2006 and 2011, Syria and Iraq were affected by a long-lasting, severe drought. This is believed to have been a trigger behind the civil war in Syria and the general turmoil in the region. The Picture was taken south of Baghdad in Iraq in July 2009. Archive image. Photo: Hadi Mizban/AP/TT

How the dilemma is to be solved is unclear. But All severe analysts agree that much would be won if women in Africa and the Middle East had greater control over their own lives.

Discrimination Against Women is one of the most important, if not the most important reason for the rapid increase in population. Increased access to family planning and contraception in Africa, according to UN estimates, would mean a reduction of 0.5 births per woman – which would ultimately mean just over a billion fewer people on the continent in 2100 compared to the Current forecast.

Anders Wijkman profoundly regrets the decision of the new US administration to strangle public support from the UNITED STATES to international organizations that support abortion.

"It's pathetic. What do those old men know about women's needs?